Assembly Election Results 2018 will matter for 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Eshopmarkets    |   Politics   |   04-01-2019

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The validity of the second point is conditional on these assembly election trends carrying forward to the next Lok Sabha elections. An HT analysis since 2003 shows this to be true. Barring the 2009 Lok Sabha elections for Chhattisgarh, the direction of change in the vote share of the BJP between two consecutive assembly elections has always been preserved in the next Lok Sabha elections. So, a setback to the BJP in these elections will mean possible setbacks in 2019 too.

The results of assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram are expected to have a large bearing on the political narrative in 2019. However, even before these elections are completed and results declared, two divergent opinions have been expressed about the chances of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 general elections.

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